Source: Grid Shopper — https://gridshopper.com/blog/eversource-rates-january-2027


import ExplainerBox from '../../components/ExplainerBox.astro';
import { AuctionTrend, BidStrip, MonthShape, RateHistory } from '../../components/charts/PostCharts';
import data from '../../data/articles/eversource-rates-january-2027.json';

<ExplainerBox title="Main points">
  - Eversource has bought 80% of the supply for January through June 2027 at a weighted average cost of **15.07¢ per kWh**.
  - Our estimate for the January 1, 2027 rate is **about 15.2¢ per kWh**, within a range of 14.6¢ to 15.6¢. That is about 31% above today's rate of 11.57¢. For reference, last January's rate was 12.64¢. Eversource files the actual rate with the Public Utilities Regulatory Authority (PURA) in mid-November.
  - The regional grid operator, ISO New England, implemented controversial market changes that have increased costs for wholesale suppliers more than was expected. These changes are likely at least partially responsible for the higher standard service rates.
  - The biggest piece still unknown is Eversource's 2026 true-up, the gap between what standard service cost this year and what customers paid for it. It could move the rate by about half a cent either way.
</ExplainerBox>

## What January 2027 looks like so far

Standard service is the electricity supply rate Eversource charges households that have not picked a competitive supplier. It resets twice a year, on January 1 and July 1. Eversource does not generate power. It buys it ahead of time from wholesale suppliers, in slices of 10% of the load, over about four quarterly bid days for each six-month period. The winning supplier takes on the full cost of service responsibility for its slice: energy, reserves, and every other charge from ISO New England.

For January through June 2027, Eversource bought 10% on January 27, 2026, 30% on April 7 and 40% on July 14. The last 20% was bought at the October bid day, and its prices stay confidential for 90 days, until January. The July results are now available, so we have data for 80% of the Eversource supply procurement.

| Bid day | Share of Jan–Jun 2027 | Average winning bid | Residential price |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| January 27, 2026 | 10% | 14.05¢ | 14.05¢ |
| April 7, 2026 | 30% | 15.21¢ | 15.29¢ |
| July 14, 2026 | 40% | 15.09¢ | 15.17¢ |
| **Bought so far** | **80%** | **15.01¢** | **15.07¢** |

*Winning bid = each bid's term price, the average across months and customer classes that Eversource ranks bids on. Residential price = the same winning bids' residential prices, weighted by residential load the way Eversource's rate filings do it (Jan–Jun 2026 weights used until the 2027 weights are filed). Source: Eversource bid sheets; Grid Shopper calculation.*

Eversource's rate is determined by the price of the winning bids plus one adjustment, the true-up described below. If we assume the October slices cost the same as July's, the supply price for the full six months comes to 15.09¢. Adding our central true-up of about 0.1¢ gives **about 15.2¢ per kWh**.

<div class="not-prose my-8 rounded-md border border-rule bg-paper p-4 sm:px-6 sm:pb-4 sm:pt-5">
  <RateHistory client:load rates={data.rates} estimate={data.estimate}
    title="Eversource residential standard service rate by six-month period, with Grid Shopper’s January 2027 estimate"
    subtitle="¢ per kWh · rates from Eversource filings · estimate as of October 17, 2026"
    footnote="Estimate range assumes a true-up between −0.5¢ and +0.5¢" />
</div>

For a home using 700 kWh a month, 15.2¢ would be about $25 a month more for supply than today's 11.57¢ rate, and about $18 a month more than last January's 12.64¢. Delivery charges are separate and are not part of this estimate. The live numbers are on our [Eversource page](/ct/eversource).

## Supply auction prices have trended higher since January 2026

Eversource buys each six-month period at several auctions spread over about a year, and publishes the results 90 days after each one. That lets us follow what the same six months of power cost as the purchases came in. In the chart below, each line is one six-month period, and each dot is one auction's price for it.

<div class="not-prose my-8 rounded-md border border-rule bg-paper p-4 sm:px-6 sm:pb-4 sm:pt-5">
  <AuctionTrend client:load rows={data.winningPrices}
    marker={{ month: '2026-01', label: 'Jan 27, 2026 bid day', sublabel: '(Winter Storm Fern)' }}
    title="Eversource winning auction prices by bid day, for each six-month service period"
    subtitle="¢ per kWh, average of winning bids · bid days October 2021 to July 2026 · as of October 17, 2026"
    footnote="Dark: January–June service · light: July–December service" />
</div>

Electricity is more expensive in winter than in summer, so the fair comparison is the same season bought at the same time of year. Measured that way, every auction since January 2026 has cost more than the same auction a year earlier:

| What Eversource bought | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Winter supply (January–June), bought in April | 12.41¢ | 15.21¢ | +23% |
| Winter supply, bought in July | 12.64¢ | 15.09¢ | +19% |
| Summer supply (July–December), bought in July | 10.50¢ | 12.37¢ | +18% |

The smallest increase was the single slice bought on the storm day itself, 8% above the same purchase in January 2025.

## The bid day that landed in a storm

Eversource's first purchase for winter 2027 happened on January 27, 2026, the costliest day of Winter Storm Fern in New England's wholesale market. Natural gas prices set records that day. Suppliers bidding on next winter's power were watching the regional market's costs spike in real time.

<div class="not-prose my-8 rounded-md border border-rule bg-paper p-4 sm:px-6 sm:pb-4 sm:pt-5">
  <BidStrip client:load days={data.bidDays}
    highlight={{ day: data.stormDay, label: 'Bid during', sublabel: 'Winter Storm Fern' }}
    title="Every bid for January–June service, by bid day, with the winning bids filled"
    subtitle="¢ per kWh, bid term price · seven bid days, January 2025 to July 2026"
    footnote="Eversource redacted bid sheets, posted about three months after each bid day · bidder letters change at every bid day" />
</div>

The January 2026 bids for winter 2027 ran from 14.05¢ to 27.67¢, almost a factor of two from lowest to highest. At the bid day before it, in October 2025, the spread was 13%. Eversource only planned to buy one slice that day and took the lowest bid. The 30% it bought in April came from just three bidders. By July the field had recovered to eight bidders, the most of any bid day in the chart, and the spread was back to about 20%. The price level stayed high, though: the cheapest July bid for winter 2027 was 16% above the cheapest July 2025 bid for winter 2026.

## What happened in the wholesale market during Fern

In March 2025, ISO New England started a new day-ahead market for ancillary services. These are payments to generators, priced the day before, for holding capacity ready in case it is needed. The ISO expected the new market service to cost about $140 million a year. Its independent market monitor put the first year's cost at $974 million. About 40% of that came in the five days of Winter Storm Fern, January 25 to 29, 2026, and 18% on January 27 alone.

Since last winter, ISO New England has proposed reforms to the new market services, which FERC has approved. The changes are intended to lower the cost of these services while maintaining grid reliability. Wholesale suppliers will be watching market results closely this winter as they work to calibrate their expectations for the cost to serve customers.

Suppliers that win a slice of Eversource's load pay all of these ISO-NE costs for it, and they have to price them in months before the power is delivered. After a first winter that cost about seven times the ISO's estimate, under new rules that have not yet been tested in a cold snap, it is reasonable to expect suppliers to build a larger cushion into their bids. The public data does not show how large that premium is.

## The remaining unknown: the 2026 true-up

The residential rate stays flat for six months, but Eversource doesn't pay suppliers a flat price. Its contract pays each winning supplier its bid price for each month, on the power customers actually used that month. A winning bid for winter 2027 looks like this:

<div class="not-prose my-8 rounded-md border border-rule bg-paper p-4 sm:px-6 sm:pb-4 sm:pt-5">
  <MonthShape client:load months={data.monthShape.months} price={data.monthShape.price} loadShare={data.monthShape.loadShare} average={data.monthShape.average}
    title="One winning July 2026 bid for January–June 2027, residential price by month"
    subtitle="¢ per kWh · the lowest winning bid, against its six-month average weighted by load"
    footnote="Eversource July 2026 bid sheet; load shares from Eversource’s bid evaluation weights" />
</div>

When January and February come in colder than planned, customers use more power in the most expensive months, and Eversource pays out more than the flat rate collects. The reverse happens in a mild winter. Eversource settles the difference once a year through the generation service charge true-up. It is set in the November filing from Eversource's projection of the year just ending, plus a few smaller items such as regulatory expense and bad debt.

The true-up was −1.08¢ in 2025, refunding a 2024 over-collection of $121 million. It started 2026 at −0.05¢ and rose to +0.40¢ in July, after 2025's balance came in $22.7 million worse than Eversource had projected. Each $10 million of 2026 balance moves the January 2027 rate by about 0.11¢. A cold January and February point toward an under-collection, so we lean slightly positive (+0.1¢) and allow half a cent either way. The 2026 balance is not public until the November filing.

## What comes next

- **October 23:** ISO New England's ancillary services reforms take effect.
- **Mid-November:** Eversource files its January 1 rate with PURA (last year's filing was November 17). We will add the filed rate to this post next to our estimate.
- **January 2027:** the October bid day's prices become public, the last 20% of the period.

Further out, PURA decided on October 7 that Connecticut's utilities should aim to buy about 20% of standard service directly from ISO New England's spot markets, alongside full-requirements contracts. Eversource expects that to start in the second half of 2028, so it does not affect January 2027.

## Sources

- Eversource, Connecticut wholesale supply RFP page: redacted bid sheets for January, April and July 2025 and 2026, October 2025; standard service contract (Article 5) and RFP (evaluation weights); Form IV weighting factors.
- PURA Docket 26-01-01: Eversource's November 17, 2025 and May 15, 2026 rate filings (Exhibit 5, Attachment 1); August 17, 2026 filing (true-up calculation); procurement compliance filings. Docket 25-01-01 (January 2025 rate).
- PURA Docket 12-06-02RE05, final decision of October 7, 2026 (dynamic market purchases).
- ISO New England Internal Market Monitor, *An Assessment of the Day-Ahead Ancillary Services Market* (June 2026); FERC order accepting ER26-3176 (196 FERC ¶ 61,198, September 14, 2026).
- Connecticut OCC consumer alert on January 2026 standard service rates (November 18, 2025).
- Grid Shopper auction record and Connecticut rate board snapshots.